Cahiers de sociologie et de démographie médicales
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Cah Sociol Demogr Med · Apr 2005
Comparative Study[A physician demand and supply forecast model for Nova Scotia].
There is well-founded concern about the current and future availability of Health Human Resources (HHR). Demographic trends are magnifying this concern -- an ageing population will require more medical interventions at a time when the HHR workforce itself is ageing. The lengthy and costly training period for most health care workers, especially physicians, poses a real challenge that requires planning these activities well in advance. Hence, there is definite need for a good HHR forecasting model. ⋯ The model can simulate supply-side policy changes (e.g. more IMGs, delayed retirements) and can also reflect changes in demand (e.g. a cure for leukemia; different work intensities for physicians). The model is highly parameterized so that it can accommodate shocks that may influence the future requirements for physicians. Once a future requirement is determined, the supply model can identify the policy levers (new entrants, immigration, emigration, retirement) necessary to close the gap between demand and supply. The model is a user-friendly tool made for policy makers to formulate appropriate physician workforce planning.
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The past three decades have seen the number of international migrants double, to reach the unprecedented total of 175 million people in 2003. National health systems are often the biggest national employer, responsible for an estimated 35 million workers worldwide. Health professionals are part of the expanding global labour market. ⋯ Shared language, promises of a better quality of life and globalization all support the continued existence of health professionals' international migration. The ethical dimension o this mobility is a sensitive issue that needs to be addressed. A major paradigm shift, however, is required in order to lessen the need to migrate rather than artificially curb the flows.