BJU international
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To estimate the likelihood of poor surgical results being explained by chance rather than under-performance. ⋯ Very large cohorts are needed to confirm even significant under-performance. Consecutive deaths are very unlikely events for competent surgeons. Clustered deaths (two deaths in 10 cases) are very unlikely events for excellent surgeons but plausible for competent ones. Analysis of consecutive/clustered deaths is limited by low statistical sensitivity; only up to a quarter of seriously under-performing surgeons are identified. No deaths in 40 consecutive cases implies competence.