Mathematical biosciences
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Mathematical biosciences · Jan 2002
Detection of hormesis effect in longevity: simulation approach for heterogeneous population.
Manifestation of hormesis in longevity was modelled by modification of the mortality rate during and after the period of a stress factor action. In heterogeneous population this can lead to observation of unchanged mortality during action of the stress and decrease in mortality after stress period. Stochastic simulations were made to investigate the possibility of detecting the hormesis effect on the basis of the stress-control longitudinal data. ⋯ In case of 'weak' effect the hormesis phenomenon is not detected in a 'highly heterogeneous' population even in a group composed of 1000 subjects. In a 'low heterogeneous' population the hormesis phenomenon is detected with probability higher than 70% when the group size is not less than 200 subjects. Information about the survival in control group did not play a critical role in all experiments and exact survival curve may be replaced by the traditional Kaplan-Meier estimate.