Mathematical biosciences
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Mathematical biosciences · Oct 2020
Predicting COVID-19 spread in the face of control measures in West Africa.
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is causing devastating demographic, social, and economic damage globally. Understanding current patterns of the pandemic spread and forecasting its long-term trajectory is essential in guiding policies aimed at curtailing the pandemic. This is particularly important in regions with weak economies and fragile health care systems such as West Africa. ⋯ Combining two or more measures is better for disease control, e.g., if asymptomatic cases are contact traced or identified and isolated in less than 8 days, only about 29% reduction in the disease transmission rate is required for disease elimination. Furthermore, we showed that the currently implemented measures triggered a 33% reduction in the time-dependent effective reproduction number between February 28 and June 26, 2020. We conclude that curtailing the COVID-19 pandemic burden significantly in West Africa requires more control measures than those that have already been implemented, as well as more mass testing and contact tracing in order to identify and isolate asymptomatic individuals early.
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Residential colleges and universities face unique challenges in providing in-person instruction during the COVID-19 pandemic. Administrators are currently faced with decisions about whether to open during the pandemic and what modifications of their normal operations might be necessary to protect students, faculty and staff. There is little information, however, on what measures are likely to be most effective and whether existing interventions could contain the spread of an outbreak on campus. ⋯ Moving the largest classes online is also crucial for controlling both the size of outbreaks and the number of students in quarantine. Increased residential exposure can significantly impact the size of an outbreak, but it is likely more important to control non-residential social exposure among students. Finally, necessarily high quarantine rates even in controlled outbreaks imply significant absenteeism, indicating a need to plan for remote instruction of quarantined students.