The health care manager
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The health care manager · Apr 2019
Choice of a Short-term Prediction Model for Patient Discharge Before Noon: A Walk-Through of ARIMA Model.
Hospital leaders encourage morning discharge of patients to boost patient flow. This work presents a detailed process of a building model for forecasting patient discharge before noon applying the Box-Jenkins methodology using weekly historic data. ⋯ The objective is to find an appropriate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for forecasting the rate of patients out by noon based on the lowest error in a statistical forecast by applying the mean absolute percentage error. The results obtained demonstrate that a nonseasonal ARIMA model classified as ARIMA(2,1,1) offers a good fit to actual discharge-before-noon data and proposes hospital leaders short-term prediction that could facilitate decision-making process, which is important in an uncertain health care system environment.