Theoretical biology & medical modelling
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Theor Biol Med Model · Jul 2017
Transmission dynamics of cholera in Yemen, 2017: a real time forecasting.
A large epidemic of cholera, caused by Vibrio cholerae, serotype Ogawa, has been ongoing in Yemen, 2017. To improve the situation awareness, the present study aimed to forecast the cholera epidemic, explicitly addressing the reporting delay and ascertainment bias. ⋯ Cholera epidemic in Yemen, 2017 was predicted to soon start to decrease. If the weekly incidence is reported in the up-to-the-minute manner and updated in later weeks, not a single data point but the entire epidemic curve must be precisely updated.