Infection, genetics and evolution : journal of molecular epidemiology and evolutionary genetics in infectious diseases
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Infect. Genet. Evol. · Aug 2020
Mathematical model of infection kinetics and its analysis for COVID-19, SARS and MERS.
The purpose of this paper is to reveal the spread rules of the three pneumonia: COVID-19, SARS and MERS. We compare the new spread characteristics of COVID-19 with those of SARS and MERS. ⋯ Parametric analysis shows that the growth rate of COVID-19 is about twice that of the SARS and MERS, and the COVID-19 doubling cycle is two to three days, suggesting that the number of COVID-19 patients would double in two to three days without human intervention. The infection inhibition constant in Hubei is two orders of magnitude lower than in other regions, which reasonably explains the situation of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hubei.