Articles: pandemics.
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What will be the global impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19)? Answering this question requires accurate forecasting the spread of confirmed cases as well as analysis of the number of deaths and recoveries. Forecasting, however, requires ample historical data. At the same time, no prediction is certain as the future rarely repeats itself in the same way as the past. ⋯ Assuming that the data used is reliable and that the future will continue to follow the past pattern of the disease, our forecasts suggest a continuing increase in the confirmed COVID-19 cases with sizable associated uncertainty. The risks are far from symmetric as underestimating its spread like a pandemic and not doing enough to contain it is much more severe than overspending and being over careful when it will not be needed. This paper describes the timeline of a live forecasting exercise with massive potential implications for planning and decision making and provides objective forecasts for the confirmed cases of COVID-19.
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The Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic is exerting unprecedented pressure on NHS Health and Social Care provisions, with frontline staff, such as those of critical care units, encountering vast practical and emotional challenges on a daily basis. Although staff are being supported through organisational provisions, facilitated by those in leadership roles, the emergence of mental health difficulties or the exacerbation of existing ones amongst these members of staff is a cause for concern. Acknowledging this, academics and healthcare professionals alike are calling for psychological support for frontline staff, which not only addresses distress during the initial phases of the outbreak but also over the months, if not years, that follow. ⋯ An attempt has been made to translate these sets of guidance into clinical provisions via the recently established Homerton Covid Psychological Support (HCPS) pathway delivered by Talk Changes (Hackney & City IAPT). This article describes the phased, stepped-care and evidence-based approach that has been adopted by the service to support local frontline NHS staff. We wish to share our service design and pathway of care with other Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) services who may also seek to support hospital frontline staff within their associated NHS Trusts and in doing so, lay the foundations of a coordinated response.
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As SARS-CoV-2 rapidly spread across the globe, short-term modeling forecasts provided time-critical information for containment and mitigation strategies. Global projections had so far incorrectly predicted large numbers of COVID-19 cases in Africa and that its health systems would be overwhelmed. Significantly higher COVID-19-related mortality were expected in Africa mainly because of its poor socio-economic determinants that make it vulnerable to public health threats, including diseases of epidemic potential. ⋯ WHO recommends lifting of lockdowns should depend on the ability to contain SARS-CoV-2 and protect the public once restrictions are lifted. Yet, the greatest challenge is the critical decision which must be made in this time of uncertainties. We propose simple strategies on how to ease lockdowns in Africa based on evidence, disease dynamics, situational analysis and ability of national governments to handle upsurges.
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Practice Guideline
Sleep Breathing Disorders in the COVID-19 Era: Italian Thoracic Society Organizational Models for a Correct Approach to Diagnosis and Treatment.
The attenuation of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic, at least in Italy, allows a gradual resumption of diagnostic and therapeutic activities for sleep respiratory disorders. The knowledge on this new disorder is growing fast, but our experience is still limited and when a physician cannot rely on evidence-based medicine, the experience of his peers can support the decision-making and operational process of reopening sleep laboratories. The aim of this paper is to focus on the safety of patients and operators accessing hospitals and the practice of diagnosing and treating sleep-related respiratory disorders. ⋯ The follow-up phase can again be performed mainly by telemedicine both for problem solving and the collection of data. Public access to hospital should be minimized and granted to patients only. Constant monitoring of institutional communications will help in implementing the necessary recommendations.