Articles: mortality.
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We examined the physical activity and other life-style characteristics of 16,936 Harvard alumni, aged 35 to 74, for relations to rates of mortality from all causes and for influences on length of life. A total of 1413 alumni died during 12 to 16 years of follow-up (1962 to 1978). Exercise reported as walking, stair climbing, and sports play related inversely to total mortality, primarily to death due to cardiovascular or respiratory causes. ⋯ With or without consideration of hypertension, cigarette smoking, extremes or gains in body weight, or early parental death, alumni mortality rates were significantly lower among the physically active. Relative risks of death for individuals were highest among cigarette smokers and men with hypertension, and attributable risks in the community were highest among smokers and sedentary men. By the age of 80, the amount of additional life attributable to adequate exercise, as compared with sedentariness, was one to more than two years.
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Critical care medicine · Mar 1986
Dynamic assessment of severity of illness in pediatric intensive care.
Severity of illness in 293 pediatric ICU patients was assessed by a daily estimate of ICU survival. The probability of nonsurvival was obtained by logistic regression analysis, using physiologic stability index (PSI) values from previous days as time-dependent covariates. Only PSI values from the previous 2 days gave statistically significant predictions of short-term (less than 24 h) outcome. ⋯ These results indicate that this model for daily risk assessment is statistically reliable and objective, as verified against eventual outcome. In the 345 patients, ICU mortality was predicted with 89% sensitivity and 91% specificity. This prediction model may be used to stratify patient groups for clinical studies, or identify very low-risk patients for potential early ICU discharge.
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Clin Obstet Gynaecol · Mar 1986
Comparative StudyRole of abortion in control of global population growth.
No nation desirous of reducing its growth rate to 1% or less can expect to do so without the widespread use of abortion. This observational study, based on the experience of 116 of the world's largest countries, supports the contention that abortion is essential to any national population growth control effort. The principal findings are: Except for a few countries with ageing populations and very high contraceptive prevalence rates, developed countries will need to maintain abortion rates generally in the range of 201-500 abortions per 1000 live births if they are to maintain growth rates at levels below 1%. ⋯ The data in this report suggest that actual alternatives are high death rates of infants and children or widespread use of contraception and abortion. African nations tend to have the very lowest abortion rates and the very highest infant and child death rates. To avoid a world with deteriorating social, economic and political stability, with the concomitant loss of personal and national security, we must ensure that safe abortion is made available to all who wish to use this service.