• Qian Yan, Wen Jiang Zheng, Qing Lian Chen, Bo Qing Wang, Hui Yan Luo, Jiao Xue, and Xiong Wen Wang.
• Guangzhou University of Chinese Medicine.
• Medicine (Baltimore). 2019 Oct 1; 98 (40): e17332.

AbstractTo predict the survival of appendiceal mucinous adenocarcinoma (AMA) by prognostic nomogram.A total of 3234 patients with AMA were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 1973 to 2015. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression analyses were used to generate independent prognostic factors. These variables were included in the nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) at 1-, 3-, and 5- years. These data are validated both internally and externally. The consistency index (C-index) and calibration chart were used to estimate the accuracy of the nomogram.The study cohort was randomly divided into the training (n = 2155) and validation group (n = 1799). According to univariate and multivariate analyses, age at diagnosis, marital status, sex, histological differentiation, SEER extent of disease, number of local lymph nodes examined, whether they were positive, and surgical methods were independent prognostic factors for OS and DSS. These factors were incorporated into the nomogram. Internal validation in the training cohort showed that the C-index values for nomogram predictions of OS and DSS were 0.73 (95% CI 0.70-0.76) and 0.77 (95% CI 0.73-0.81), respectively. Similarly, the corresponding C-index values in the external validation cohort were 0.76 (95% CI 0.70-0.81) and 0.75 (95% CI 0.71-0.80). The Calibration plots revealed that the actual survival and nomogram prediction had a good consistency.Build a nomogram in the SEER database to predict OS and DSS in patients with AMA. It can provide accurate and personalised survival prediction for clinicians and patients.

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