• Konstantin S Sharov.
• Koltzov Institute of Developmental Biology, Russian Academy of Sciences, 26 Vavilov Street, 119334, Moscow, Russia. Electronic address: const.sharov@mail.ru.
• J Formos Med Assoc. 2021 Jan 1; 120 (1 Pt 3): 679-687.

BackgroundThe purpose of the work is to analyze population adaptation to SARS-CoV-2 in Europe in March-May 2020, predict herd immunity formation in the nearest several months on the basis of our SIR modified epidemiological model of the virus spread and elaborate recommendations to governments regarding a second wave of COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsOuter (1,006,512 RT-PCR tests results for SARS-CoV-2) and proprietary (34,660 respiratory samples) epidemiological data was used. Fifteen European countries were studied. Dates of research: March 2 - May 22, 2020.ResultsAs of April 21, 2020, the mean population infection rate (PIR) for the European countries considered, was 9.66%. It decreased to 6.85% by May 22, 2020. The model predicted 5.68% PIR, giving accuracy of 79.40%. SARS-CoV-2 basic reproduction number is limited by an extremum that may be observed for closed communities. A concept of effective reproduction number is introduced as a function of r0 with maximum at r0 = 4.671 and value reff. = 0.315 for the full-lockdown mode and r0 = 5.539 and reff. = 0.552 for the no-lockdown mode of SARS-CoV-2 containment. Full-lockdown and no-lockdown modes resulted in the outcomes not strikingly different from each other in terms of herd immunity values.ConclusionIn case of a second wave of COVID-19 disease in Europe, it will coincide with seasonal common cold surge, spanning from mid-September 2020 to mid-February 2021, with a median in November-December 2020. Strict epidemiological surveillance must be observed in Europe at that time.Copyright © 2020 Formosan Medical Association. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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