• Mayo Clinic proceedings · Sep 2020

    Universal Shelter-in-Place Versus Advanced Automated Contact Tracing and Targeted Isolation: A Case for 21st-Century Technologies for SARS-CoV-2 and Future Pandemics.

    • Andrea Nuzzo, Can Ozan Tan, Ramesh Raskar, Daniel C DeSimone, Suraj Kapa, and Rajiv Gupta.
    • GlaxoSmithKline US, Collegeville, PA. Electronic address: andrea.8.nuzzo@gsk.com.
    • Mayo Clin. Proc. 2020 Sep 1; 95 (9): 1898-1905.

    ObjectiveTo model and compare effect of digital contact tracing versus shelter-in-place on severe acute respiratory syndrome - coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spread.MethodsUsing a classical epidemiologic framework and parameters estimated from literature published between February 1, 2020, and May 25, 2020, we modeled two non-pharmacologic interventions - shelter-in-place and digital contact tracing - to curb spread of SARS-CoV-2. For contact tracing, we assumed an advanced automated contact tracing (AACT) application that sends alerts to individuals advising self-isolation based on individual exposure profile. Model parameters included percentage population ordered to shelter-in-place, adoption rate of AACT, and percentage individuals who appropriately follow recommendations. Under influence of these variables, the number of individuals infected, exposed, and isolated were estimated.ResultsWithout any intervention, a high rate of infection (>10 million) with early peak is predicted. Shelter-in-place results in rapid decline in infection rate at the expense of impacting a large population segment. The AACT model achieves reduction in infected and exposed individuals similar to shelter-in-place without impacting a large number of individuals. For example, a 50% AACT adoption rate mimics a shelter-in-place order for 40% of the population and results in a greater than 90% decrease in peak number of infections. However, as compared to shelter-in-place, with AACT significantly fewer individuals would be isolated.ConclusionWide adoption of digital contact tracing can mitigate infection spread similar to universal shelter-in-place, but with considerably fewer individuals isolated.Copyright © 2020 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

      Pubmed     Full text   Copy Citation     Plaintext  

      Add institutional full text...

    Notes

     
    Knowledge, pearl, summary or comment to share?
    300 characters remaining
    help        
    You can also include formatting, links, images and footnotes in your notes
    • Simple formatting can be added to notes, such as *italics*, _underline_ or **bold**.
    • Superscript can be denoted by <sup>text</sup> and subscript <sub>text</sub>.
    • Numbered or bulleted lists can be created using either numbered lines 1. 2. 3., hyphens - or asterisks *.
    • Links can be included with: [my link to pubmed](http://pubmed.com)
    • Images can be included with: ![alt text](https://bestmedicaljournal.com/study_graph.jpg "Image Title Text")
    • For footnotes use [^1](This is a footnote.) inline.
    • Or use an inline reference [^1] to refer to a longer footnote elseweher in the document [^1]: This is a long footnote..

    hide…