• Takashi Shimazui, Taka-Aki Nakada, Megumi Yazaki, Toshihiko Mayumi, Osamu Takasu, Kenichi Matsuda, Junichi Sasaki, Hiroki Otsubo, Yuto Teshima, Masakazu Nabeta, Takeshi Moriguchi, Takayuki Shibusawa, and Shigeto Oda.
• Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Chiba University Graduate School of Medicine, Chiba, Japan.
• Shock. 2021 Jun 1; 55 (6): 790-795.

BackgroundPredicting multiple organ dysfunction (MOD) in the late phase of critical illnesses is essential. Cytokines are considered biomarkers that can predict clinical outcomes; however, their predictive value for late-phase MOD is unknown. This study aimed to identify the biomarker with the highest predictive value for late-phase MOD.MethodsThis observational study prospectively evaluated data on adult patients with systemic inflammatory response syndrome, those who presented to the emergency department or were admitted to intensive care units in five tertiary hospitals (n = 174). Seven blood biomarkers levels (interleukin-6 [IL-6], IL-8, IL-10, tumor-necrosis factor-α, white blood cells, C-reactive protein, and procalcitonin) were measured at three timepoints (days 0, 1, and 2). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was analyzed to evaluate predictive values for MOD (primary outcome, MOD on day 7 [late-phase]; secondary outcome, MOD on day 3 [early-phase]).ResultsOf the measured 7 biomarkers, blood IL-6 levels on day 2 had the highest predictive value for MOD on day 7 using single timepoint data (AUC 0.825, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.754-0.879). Using three timepoint biomarkers, blood IL-6 levels had the highest predictive value of MOD on day 7 (AUC 0.838, 95% CI 0.768-0.890). Blood IL-6 levels using three timepoint biomarkers had also the highest predictive value for MOD on day 3 (AUC 0.836, 95% CI 0.766-0.888).ConclusionOf the measured biomarkers, blood IL-6 levels had the highest predictive value for MOD on days 3 and 7. Blood IL-6 levels predict early- and late-phase MOD in critically ill patients.Copyright © 2020 by the Shock Society.

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