• Jessica Keim-Malpass, Kyle B Enfield, J Forrest Calland, Douglas E Lake, and Matthew T Clark.
• School of Nursing, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, United States of America. School of Medicine, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, United States of America.
• Physiol Meas. 2018 Jul 16; 39 (7): 075005.

ObjectivePredictive analytics monitoring that informs clinicians of the risk for failed extubation would help minimize both the duration of mechanical ventilation and the risk of emergency re-intubation in ICU patients. We hypothesized that dynamic monitoring of cardiorespiratory data, vital signs, and lab test results would add information to standard clinical risk factors.MethodsWe report model development in a retrospective observational cohort admitted to either the medical or surgical/trauma ICU that were intubated during their ICU stay and had available physiologic monitoring data (n  =  1202). The primary outcome was removal of endotracheal intubation (i.e. extubation) followed within 48 h by reintubation or death (i.e. failed extubation). We developed a standard risk marker model based on demographic and clinical data. We also developed a novel risk marker model using dynamic data elements-continuous cardiorespiratory monitoring, vital signs, and lab values.ResultsRisk estimates from multivariate predictive models in the 24 h preceding extubation were significantly higher for patients that failed. Combined standard and novel risk markers demonstrated good predictive performance in leave-one-out validation: AUC of 0.64 (95% CI: 0.57-0.69) and 1.6 alerts per week to identify 32% of extubations that will fail. Novel risk factors added significantly to the standard model.ConclusionPredictive analytics monitoring models can detect changes in vital signs, continuous cardiorespiratory monitoring, and laboratory measurements in both the hours preceding and following extubation for those patients destined for extubation failure.

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