• Eman A Toraih, Mohammad H Hussein, Rami M Elshazli, Manal S Fawzy, August Houghton, Danielle Tatum, Mary Killackey, Emad Kandil, and Juan Duchesne.
• Department of Surgery, Tulane University, School of Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana.
• Ann. Surg. 2021 Jan 1; 273 (1): 28-33.

ObjectiveTo quantify the time-varying reproductive rates for SARS-CoV-2 and its implication in Louisiana.Summary Of Background DataBasic reproductive number (R0) and effective reproductive number (Re or Rt) are 2 measures of the ability of an infectious agent to spread in the environment. They differ in that R0 assumes zero immunity in the population, while Re or Rt accounts for change over time. Reproductive number modeling is influenced by several factors, including serial interval, the time between the onset of symptoms in an infector, and a secondary case. Quantification of the ability of a pathogen to spread is essential in guiding policy.MethodsHere, we construct epidemic curves and calculate daily Rt values for the state of Louisiana and each of its 9 regions.ResultsOur results demonstrated variation over both time and geography in calculated R0 and Rt values. Generally, as time has progressed, predicted R0 and Rt values have decreased. In Louisiana, mean Rt was calculated at 3.07 in March and 0.82 by May. A reproductive number less than one is important as it indicates infectious spread will decline with time. The most recent finding of mean Rt = 0.82 is important. It stands in stark contrast to the situation in April when New Orleans, Louisiana, had the highest per capita coronavirus mortality rate in the United States - twice that of New York City and 4 times the rate in Seattle.ConclusionAs locations around the world begin to lift restrictions, monitoring of infectious spread will be essential.Copyright © 2020 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.

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