• Kaustuv Chatterjee, Kaushik Chatterjee, Arun Kumar, and Subramanian Shankar.
• Head, Medical Informatics, INHS Asvini, Colaba, Mumbai, India.
• Med J Armed Forces India. 2020 Apr 1; 76 (2): 147-155.

BackgroundIn India, the SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19 epidemic has grown to 1251 cases and 32 deaths as on 30 Mar 2020. The healthcare impact of the epidemic in India was studied using a stochastic mathematical model.MethodsA compartmental SEIR model was developed, in which the flow of individuals through compartments is modeled using a set of differential equations. Different scenarios were modeled with 1000 runs of Monte Carlo simulation each using MATLAB. Hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) requirements, and deaths were modeled on SimVoi software. The impact of nonpharmacological interventions (NPIs) including social distancing and lockdown on checking the epidemic was estimated.ResultsUninterrupted epidemic in India would have resulted in more than 364 million cases and 1.56 million deaths with peak by mid-July. As per the model, at current growth rate of 1.15, India is likely to reach approximately 3 million cases by 25 May, implying 125,455 (±18,034) hospitalizations, 26,130 (±3298) ICU admissions, and 13,447 (±1819) deaths. This would overwhelm India's healthcare system. The model shows that with immediate institution of NPIs, the epidemic might still be checked by mid-April 2020. It would then result in 241,974 (±33,735) total infections, 10,214 (±1649) hospitalizations, 2121 (±334) ICU admissions, and 1081 (±169) deaths.ConclusionAt the current growth rate of epidemic, India's healthcare resources will be overwhelmed by the end of May. With the immediate institution of NPIs, total cases, hospitalizations, ICU requirements, and deaths can be reduced by almost 90%.© 2020 Director General, Armed Forces Medical Services. Published by Elsevier, a division of RELX India Pvt. Ltd.

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