• Hao Chen, Can-Tong Liu, Chao-Qun Hong, Ling-Yu Chu, Xin-Yi Huang, Lai-Feng Wei, Yi-Wei Lin, Li-Ru Tian, Yu-Hui Peng, and Yi-Wei Xu.
• State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, Guangdong, PR China.
• Nutrition. 2021 Apr 1; 84: 111086.

ObjectivesSmall cell carcinoma of the esophagus (SCCE) is a rare type of esophageal cancer, and the parameters for prediction of SCCE outcome are unclear. This study aimed to construct a nomogram to predict the outcome of SCCE.MethodsPatients who underwent treatments at the Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer Center were recruited and divided randomly into training and validation cohorts (61 and 32 patients, respectively). A Cox regression analysis was utilized to identify independent prognostic factors to establish a nomogram and predict overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS).ResultsInformation on pretreatment nutritional candidate hemoglobin and inflammation-related neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelet count were entered into the nomogram. In the training cohort, the concordance index of the nomogram for OS was 0.728, higher than that obtained by tumor/node/metastasis staging (0.614; P = 0.014). A significant difference was observed in the nomogram for DFS (0.668 vs tumor/node/metastasis stage: 0.616; P = 0.014). Similar results were found in the validation group. The decision curve analysis, net reclassification improvement, and integrated discrimination improvement showed moderate improvement of the nomogram in predicting survival. Based on the cut point calculated according to the constructed nomogram, the high-risk group had poorer OS and DFS than the low-risk group in both cohorts (all P < 0.05). Moreover, the DFS of patients receiving surgery in the high-risk group was better than that of patients receiving single radiation therapy or chemotherapy (P = 0.0111).ConclusionsA nomogram based on nutrition- and inflammation-related indicators was developed to predict the survival of patients with SCCE.Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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