• World Neurosurg · May 2021

    Predicting High-Value Care Outcomes Following Surgery for Skull Base Meningiomas.

    • Adrian E Jimenez, Adham M Khalafallah, Shravika Lam, Melanie A Horowitz, Omar Azmeh, Maureen Rakovec, Palak Patel, Jose L Porras, and Debraj Mukherjee.
    • Department of Neurosurgery, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
    • World Neurosurg. 2021 May 1; 149: e427-e436.

    BackgroundAlthough various predictors of adverse postoperative outcomes among patients with meningioma have been established, research has yet to develop a method for consolidating these findings to allow for predictions of adverse health care outcomes for patients diagnosed with skull base meningiomas. The objective of the present study was to develop 3 predictive algorithms that can be used to estimate an individual patient's probability of extended length of stay (LOS) in hospital, experiencing a nonroutine discharge disposition, or incurring high hospital charges after surgical resection of a skull base meningioma.MethodsThe present study used data from patients who underwent surgical resection for skull base meningiomas at a single academic institution between 2017 and 2019. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to predict extended LOS, nonroutine discharge, and high hospital charges, and 2000 bootstrapped samples were used to calculate an optimism-corrected C-statistic. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to assess model calibration, and P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.ResultsA total of 245 patients were included in our analysis. Our cohort was mostly female (77.6%) and white (62.4%). Our models predicting extended LOS, nonroutine discharge, and high hospital charges had optimism-corrected C-statistics of 0.768, 0.784, and 0.783, respectively. All models showed adequate calibration (P>0.05), and were deployed via an open-access, online calculator: https://neurooncsurgery3.shinyapps.io/high_value_skull_base_calc/.ConclusionsAfter external validation, our predictive models have the potential to aid clinicians in providing patients with individualized risk estimation for health care outcomes after meningioma surgery.Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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