• Yan-Hua Wang, Tian-Bing Wang, Zi-Xiao Zhang, Hui-Xin Liu, Ting-Min Xu, Chu Wang, and Bao-Guo Jiang.
• Department of Traumatology and Orthopedics, Peking University People's Hospital, Beijing 100044, China.
• Chin. Med. J. 2021 Feb 8; 134 (5): 532-538.

BackgroundModels to predict mortality in trauma play an important role in outcome prediction and severity adjustment, which informs trauma quality assessment and research. Hospitals in China typically use the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-10-CM) to describe injury. However, there is no suitable prediction model for China. This study attempts to develop a new mortality prediction model based on the ICD-10-CM lexicon and a Chinese database.MethodsThis retrospective study extracted the data of all trauma patients admitted to the Beijing Red Cross Emergency Center, from January 2012 to July 2018 (n = 40,205). We used relevant predictive variables to establish a prediction model following logistic regression analysis. The performance of the model was assessed based on discrimination and calibration. The bootstrapping method was used for internal validation and adjustment of model performance.ResultsSex, age, new region-severity codes, comorbidities, traumatic shock, and coma were finally included in the new model as key predictors of mortality. Among them, coma and traumatic shock had the highest scores in the model. The discrimination and calibration of this model were significant, and the internal validation performance was good. The values of the area under the curve and Brier score for the new model were 0.9640 and 0.0177, respectively; after adjustment of the bootstrapping method, they were 0.9630 and 0.0178, respectively.ConclusionsThe new model (China Mortality Prediction Model in Trauma based on the ICD-10-CM lexicon) showed great discrimination and calibration, and performed well in internal validation; it should be further verified externally.Copyright © 2021 The Chinese Medical Association, produced by Wolters Kluwer, Inc. under the CC-BY-NC-ND license.

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