• Ettore Lanzarone, Alice Finotello, Bianca Pane, Giovanni Pratesi, Domenico Palombo, Michele Conti, and Giovanni Spinella.
• Department of Management, Information and Production Engineering, University of Bergamo, Dalmine (BG), Italy.
• Eur. J. Clin. Invest. 2021 Jul 1; 51 (7): e13517.

ObjectivesWe analyse the cardiovascular risk factors in patients undergoing screening for Isolated Iliac Aneurysm (IIA) and Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm (AAA) and propose a logistic regression model to indicate patients at risk of IIA and/or AAA.MethodsA screening programme was carried out to identify the presence of aneurysm based on Duplex scan examination. Cardiovascular risk factors information was collected from each subject. A descriptive analysis for the incidence of IIA and AAA stratified by age and sex was carried out to evaluate factors incidence. A logistic regression model was developed to predict the probability of developing an aneurysm based on the observed risk factor levels. A threshold probability of aneurysm risk for a datum patient was also identified to effectively direct screening protocols to patients most at risk.ResultsA cohort of 10 842 patients was evaluated: 1.52% affected by IIA, 2.69% by AAA and 3.90% by at least one. Risk factors analysis showed that: IIA was correlated with cardiological status, diabetes, cardiovascular disease family history, and dyslipidaemia; AAA was correlated with cardiological status, body mass index, hypertension, and dyslipidaemia; diabetes and dyslipidaemia were the most relevant factors with at least one aneurysm. The prediction tool based on the logistic regression and the threshold probability predict the presence of IIA and AAA in 69.7% and 83.8% of cases, under k-fold cross-validation.ConclusionsThe proposed regression model can represent a valid aid to predict IIA and AAA presence and to select patients to be screened.© 2021 Stichting European Society for Clinical Investigation Journal Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

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