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Preventive medicine · Sep 2000
Increasing taxes as a strategy to reduce cigarette use and deaths: results of a simulation model.
- D T Levy, K M Cummings, and A Hyland.
- Department of the University of Baltimore and Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, Rockville, Maryland 20852, USA.
- Prev Med. 2000 Sep 1; 31 (3): 279-86.
ObjectivesThe aim of this study was to develop a simulation model to predict the effects of taxes on the smoking rate and smoking-attributable deaths.MethodsThe model projects the number of smokers and smoking-related deaths from a baseline year forward. The effects of taxes of different sizes, indexed and unindexed, and temporary vs sustained are modeled.ResultsThe model predicts that sustained tax increases have the potential to substantially reduce the number of smokers and the number of premature deaths, with the effects growing over time. Indexing taxes to inflation stems erosion of the tax effect.ConclusionsTax hikes have the ability to substantially affect smoking rates in the near term. These effects grow over time and lead to substantial savings in lives and health care costs.Copyright 2000 American Health Foundation and Academic Press.
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