• Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop. · Jan 2020

    Is it time to talk about the end of social distancing? A joinpoint analysis of COVID-19 time series in Brazilian capitals.

    • Raphael Mendonça Guimarães, Mônica de Avelar Figueiredo Mafra Magalhães, Diego Ricardo Xavier, Raphael de Freitas Saldanha, and Rafael de Castro Catão.
    • Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Escola Politécnica de Saúde Joaquim Venâncio, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
    • Rev. Soc. Bras. Med. Trop. 2020 Jan 1; 53: e20200469.

    IntroductionMonitoring coronavirus disease (COVID-19)-related infections and deaths in Brazil is controversial, with increasing pressure to ease social distance measures. However, no evidence of a sustained, widespread fall in cases exists.MethodsWe used segmented (joinpoint) regression analysis to describe the behavior of COVID-19 infections in Brazilian capital cities.ResultsAll capitals showed an exponential or a near-exponential increase in cases through May. A decline in reported cases was subsequently noted in 20 cities but was only significant for 8 (29.6%) and was followed in two by a renewed increase.ConclusionsCaution is warranted when considering the relaxation of restrictions.

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