• Shilpa Patel, Tim Friede, Robert Froud, David W Evans, and Martin Underwood.
• *University of Warwick, Warwick Clinical Trials Unit, Warwick Medical School, Coventry, United Kingdom †Department of Medical Statistics, University Medical Centre Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany ‡Centre for Primary Care and Public Health, Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London, United Kingdom §University College of Health Sciences, Campus Kristiania, Oslo, Norway.
• Spine. 2013 Apr 20; 38 (9): 762-9.

Study DesignSystematic review.ObjectiveTo evaluate randomized controlled trials validating the effects of a clinical prediction rule for patients with non-specific low back pain (LBP). The outcomes of interest were any back pain or pain-related measures.Summary Of Background DataLBP is a common and costly condition. Interventions for back pain seem to have, at best, small to moderate mean beneficial effects. Identifying subgroups of patients who may respond better to certain treatments may help to improve clinical outcomes in back pain. The development of clinical prediction rules is an attempt to determine who will respond best to certain treatments.MethodsWe conducted electronic searches of MEDLINE (1980-2009), EMBASE (1980-2009), PsycINFO (1980-2009), Allied and Complementary Medicine (1980-2009), PubMed (1980-2009), ISI Web of Knowledge (1980-2009), and the Cochrane Library (1980-2009). The reference lists of relevant articles were searched for further references.ResultsWe identified 1821 potential citations; 3 articles were included. The results from the available data do not support the use of clinical prediction rules in the management of non-specific LBP.ConclusionThere is a lack of good quality randomized controlled trials validating the effects of a clinical prediction rule for LBP. Furthermore, there is no agreement on appropriate methodology for the validation and impact analysis. The evidence for, and development of, the existing prediction rules is generally weak.

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