• Alessandro Rovetta and Lucia Castaldo.
• Mathematical, Statistical and Epidemiological Models, Redeev Srl, Naples, ITA.
• Cureus. 2020 Sep 29; 12 (9): e10719.

BackgroundBetween the end of February and the beginning of June 2020, Italy was certainly one of the worst affected countries in the world by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. During this period, Web interest in the novel coronavirus underwent a drastic surge.ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to quantitatively analyze the impact of COVID-19 on Web searches related to hygiene-preventive measures and emotional-psychological aspects as well as to estimate the effectiveness and limits of online information during an epidemic. We looked for significant correlations between COVID-19 relative search volumes and cases per region to understand the interest of the average Italian Web user during international, national, and regional COVID-19 situations. By doing so, it will be possible to deduce the mental and physical health of the population.MethodsWe used the Google Trends tool, which returns normalized values called relative search volumes (RSV), ​​ranging from 0 to 100 according to the Web popularity of a group of queries. By comparing the RSVs in periods before and after the outbreak of the novel coronavirus in Italy, we derived the impact of COVID-19 on the activity of Italian netizens towards novel coronavirus itself, specifically regarding hygiene, prevention, and psychological well-being. Furthermore, we calculated Pearson's correlations ρ between all these queries and COVID-19 cases for each region. We chose a p-value ([Formula: see text]) threshold α=.1.ResultsThe general Web interest in COVID-19 in Italy waned, as did the correlation with the official number of cases per region (p<.1 only until March 14). Web interest was similarly distributed across the regions (average search volume [ASV]=92, standard deviation [SD]=6). We found that all trends depend significantly on the number of COVID-19 cases at the national but not international or regional levels. Between February 20 and June 10, Web interest related to hygiene and prevention increased by 116% and 901%, respectively, compared to those from January 1 to February 19, 2020 (95%CIs: [115.3, 116.3], [850.3, 952.2]). Significant correlations between regional cumulative Web searches and COVID-19 cases were found between February 26 and March 7 ([Formula: see text]=.43, 95%CI: [.42, .44], p=.07). During the COVID-19 pandemic until June 10, 2020, national Web searches of the generic terms "fear" and "anxiety" grew by 8% and 21%, respectively (95%CIs: [8.0, 8.2], [20.4, 20.6]), compared to those of the period of January 1, 2018 - December 29, 2019. We found cyclically significant correlations between negative emotions related to the novel coronavirus and COVID-19 official data.ConclusionsItalian netizens showed a marked interest in the COVID-19 pandemic only when this became a direct national problem. Web searches have rarely been correlated with the number of cases per region; we conclude that the danger was perceived similarly in all regions. The period of maximum effectiveness of online information in relation to this type of situation is limited to three to four days from a specific key event. We suggest that all government agencies focus their Web disclosure efforts over that time. We found cyclical correlations with Web searches related to negative feelings such as anxiety, depression, fear, and stress. Therefore, to identify mental and physical health problems among the population, it suffices to observe slight variations in the trend of related Web queries.Copyright © 2020, Rovetta et al.

5 keywords...

hide…