• Bianca M Buurman, Ling Han, Terrence E Murphy, Evelyne A Gahbauer, Linda Leo-Summers, Heather G Allore, and Thomas M Gill.
• Department of Internal Medicine, Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, CT; Department of Internal Medicine, Section of Geriatric Medicine, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Electronic address: b.m.vanes@amc.nl.
• J Am Med Dir Assoc. 2016 Mar 1; 17 (3): 225-31.

ObjectivesTo identify distinct sets of disability trajectories in the year before and after a Medicare qualifying skilled nursing facility (Q-SNF) admission, evaluate the associations between the pre-and post-Q-SNF disability trajectories, and determine short-term outcomes (readmission, mortality).Design, Setting, And ParticipantsProspective cohort study including 754 community-dwelling older persons, 70+ years, and initially nondisabled in their basic activities of daily living. The analytic sample included 394 persons, with a first hospitalization followed by a Q-SNF admission between 1998 and 2012.Main Outcomes And MeasuresDisability in the year before and after a Q-SNF admission using 13 basic, instrumental, and mobility activities. Secondary outcomes included 30-day readmission and 12-month mortality.ResultsThe mean (SD) age of the sample was 84.9 (5.5) years. We identified 3 disability trajectories in the year before a Q-SNF admission: minimal disability (37.3% of participants), mild disability (44.6%), and moderate disability (18.2%). In the year after a Q-SNF admission, all participants started with moderate to severe disability scores. Three disability trajectories were identified: substantial improvement (26.0% of participants), minimal improvement (36.5%), and no improvement (37.5%). Among participants with minimal disability pre-Q-SNF, 52% demonstrated substantial improvement; the other 48% demonstrated minimal improvement (32%) or no improvement (16%) and remained moderately to severely disabled in the year post-Q-SNF. Among participants with mild disability pre-Q-SNF, 5% showed substantial improvement, whereas 95% showed little to no improvement. Of participants with moderate disability pre-Q-SNF, 15% remained moderately disabled showing little improvement, whereas 85% showed no improvement. Participants who transitioned from minimal disability pre-Q-SNF to no improvement post-Q-SNF had the highest rates of 30-day readmission and 12-month mortality (rate/100 person-days 1.3 [95% CI 0.6-2.8] and 0.3 [95% CI 0.15-0.45], respectively).ConclusionsAmong older persons, distinct disability trajectories were observed in the year before and after a Q-SNF admission. The likelihood of improvement in disability was greatly constrained by the pre-Q-SNF disability trajectory. Most older persons remained moderately to severely disabled in the year following a Q-SNF admission.Copyright © 2016 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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