• Ke Lin, Yonghua Hu, and Guilan Kong.
• National Institute of Health Data Science, Peking University, Beijing, China; Center for Data Science in Health and Medicine, Peking University, Beijing, China; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China.
• Int J Med Inform. 2019 May 1; 125: 55-61.

ObjectivesWe aimed to construct a mortality prediction model using the random forest (RF) algorithm for acute kidney injury (AKI) patients in the intensive care unit (ICU), and compared its performance with that of two other machine learning models and the customized simplified acute physiology score (SAPS) II model.MethodsWe used medical information mart for intensive care (MIMIC) III database for model development and performance comparison. The RF model uses the same predictor variable set as that of the SAPS II model. We also developed three other models and compared the RF model with the other three models in prediction performance. Three other models include support vector machine (SVM) model, artificial neural network (ANN) model and customized SAPS II model. In model comparison, the prediction performance of each model was assessed by the Brier score, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), accuracy and F1 score.ResultsThe final cohort consisted of 19044 patients with AKI in the ICU. The observed in-hospital mortality of AKI patients is 13.6% in the final cohort. The results of model performance comparison show that the Brier score of the RF model is 0.085 (95%CI: 0.084-0.086) and AUROC of the RF model is 0.866 (95%CI: 0.862-0.870). The accuracy of the RF model is 0.728 (95%CI: 0.715-0.741). The F1 score of the RF model is 0.459 (95%CI: 0.449-0.470). The calibration plots show that the RF model slightly overestimates mortality in patients with low risk of death and underestimates mortality in patients with high risk of death.ConclusionThere is great potential for the RF model in mortality prediction for AKI patients in ICU. The RF model may be helpful to aid ICU clinicians to make timely clinical intervention decisions for AKI patients, which is critical to help reduce the in-hospital mortality of AKI patients. A prospective study is necessary to evaluate the clinical utility of the RF model.Copyright © 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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