• N V Efimova.
• Gig Sanit. 2006 Sep 1 (5): 20-2.

AbstractThe socioeconomic significance of prediction of a trend in ambient air pollution and morbidity is mainly associated with the necessity of forecasting the rate of compensation for damage to the health status of persons exposed to adverse exposures. In the industrial centers of Eastern Siberia, the health risk associated with atmospheric pollutants that have systemic toxic and irritant effects is estimated in 730 additional cases of respiratory diseases per 1,000 children a year. Medium-term forecasting of morbidity rates in the children from the town of Shelekhov, by using mathematical models, permitted estimation of society's possible health care costs. The numerical experiments made on the basis of a dynamic model has indicated that a 13% increase in the attributive risk and financial losses of dollar 3.1 million a year can be expected from the introduction of a complex of measures by the Federal special program on which about dollar 8 million are annually spent.

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