• Scott M Berry, K Jack Ishak, Bryan R Luce, and Donald A Berry.
• Berry Consultants, College Station, TX 77845, USA. scott@berryconsultants.com
• Med Care. 2010 Jun 1;48(6 Suppl):S137-44.

BackgroundEvidence-based medicine is increasingly expected in health care decision-making. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid have initiated efforts to understand the applicability of Bayesian techniques for synthesizing evidence. As a case study, a Bayesian analysis of clinical trials of implantable cardioverter defibrillators was undertaken using patient-level data not typically available for analysis.PurposeConduct Bayesian meta-analyses of the defibrillator trials using published results to demonstrate a Bayesian approach useful to policy makers. DATA SOURCES, STUDY SELECTION, DATA EXTRACTION: We reconsidered trials in a 2007 systematic review by Ezekowitz et al (Ann Intern Med. 2007;147:251-262) and extracted information from the original published articles. Employing a Bayesian hierarchical approach, we developed a base model and 2 variants, and modeled hazard ratios separately within each year of follow-up. We considered sequential meta-analyses over time and found the predictive distribution of the results of the next trial, given its sample size.Data SynthesisFor the most robust of 3 models, the probability that the mean defibrillator effect (in the population of trials) is beneficial is greater than 0.999. In that model, about 5% of trials in the population of trials would have a detrimental effect. Despite the moderate amount of heterogeneity across the trials, there was stability of conclusions after the first 3 of the 12 total trials had been conducted. This stability enabled reasonable predictions for the results of future trials.LimitationsInability to assess treatment effects within subsets of patients.ConclusionsBayesian meta-analyses based on literature surveys can effectively inform coverage decisions. Bayesian modeling for endpoints such as mortality can elucidate treatment effects over time. The Bayesian approach used in a sequential manner over time can predict results and help assess the utility of future clinical trials.

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