• Gregory E Hicks, Julie M Fritz, Anthony Delitto, and Stuart M McGill.
• Department of Physical Therapy and Rehabilitation Science, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD 21201, USA. ghicks@som.umaryland.edu
• Arch Phys Med Rehabil. 2005 Sep 1; 86 (9): 1753-62.

ObjectiveTo develop a clinical prediction rule to predict treatment response to a stabilization exercise program for patients with low back pain (LBP).DesignA prospective, cohort study of patients with nonradicular LBP referred to physical therapy (PT).SettingOutpatient PT clinics.ParticipantsFifty-four patients with nonradicular LBP.InterventionA standardized stabilization exercise program.Main Outcome MeasureTreatment response (success or failure) was categorized based on changes in the Oswestry Disability Questionnaire scores after 8 weeks.ResultsEighteen subjects were categorized as treatment successes, 15 as treatment failures, and 21 as somewhat improved. After using regression analyses to determine the association between standardized examination variables and treatment response status, preliminary clinical prediction rules were developed for predicting success (positive likelihood ratio [LR], 4.0) and failure (negative LR, .18). The most important variables were age, straight-leg raise, prone instability test, aberrant motions, lumbar hypermobility, and fear-avoidance beliefs.ConclusionsIt appears that the response to a stabilization exercise program in patients with LBP can be predicted from variables collected from the clinical examination. The prediction rules could be used to determine whether patients with LBP are likely to benefit from stabilization exercises.

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