• Antonio Paulo Nassar and Pedro Caruso.
• Intensive Care Unit, AC Camargo Cancer Center, São Paulo-SP, Brazil Discipline of Medical Emergencies, Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
• Int J Qual Health Care. 2016 Feb 1; 28 (1): 99-103.

ObjectiveTo evaluate the accuracy of prediction of intensive care unit length of stay made by physicians at patient admission.DesignProspective cohort study.SettingThree medical-surgical intensive care units in an oncology hospital.PatientsAll patients admitted between January and December 2014.InterventionsNone.Main Outcome MeasurementsIntensive care unit (ICU) length of stay was estimated by the physicians responsible for patient admission and categorized as <48 h, 2-5 days or more than 5 days. Agreement between predicted and actual intensive care unit length of stay was calculated.ResultsA total of 2955 patients were admitted during the study period. Physicians accurately predicted ICU length of stay in 1557 (52.7%) admissions. ICU length of stay was underestimated in 864 (29.2%) and overestimated in 534 (18.1%) cases. Agreement between predicted and actual intensive care unit length of stay was poor (Kappa = 0.22) and not associated with physician characteristics. Predictions of an intensive care unit length of stay of >5 days were significantly less accurate than those of <48 h and of 2-5 days (31.1, 59.8 and 53.1%, respectively, P < 0.001).ConclusionsThe intensive care unit length of stay prediction in these oncological intensive care units is inaccurate and, ideally, should not be made at admission.© The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care; all rights reserved.

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