• Anne-Helen Harding, Simon J Griffin, and Nicholas J Wareham.
• MRC Epidemiology Unit, Elsie Widdowson Laboratory, Fulbourn Road, Cambridge CB1 9NL, UK.
• Prev Med. 2006 May 1; 42 (5): 364-8.

BackgroundTo assess the incidence of diabetes among sub-groups of the population defined by the presence of one or more simple risk factors, and to investigate population stratification as a means of identifying groups at high risk of diabetes.MethodsData from EPIC-Norfolk (1993-1998), a population-based cohort study of 24,714 men and women aged 40-78 years without self-reported diabetes at baseline, were analyzed. During 12 years of follow-up, 608 new cases of diabetes were recorded.ResultsAge (RR 1.03; 95% CI 1.02, 1.04), parental history of diabetes (RR 2.15; 95% CI 1.80, 2.57), BMI (RR 1.76; 95% CI 1.53, 2.02) and physical activity (RR 0.72-0.77 (reference sedentary)) were independently related to risk of diabetes. Sedentary, obese individuals aged over 55 years, with a parental history of diabetes were 18 times more likely to develop diabetes than those in the lowest risk group.ConclusionSedentary, obese men and women over 55 years with a parental history of diabetes form a readily identifiable group, which could be targeted for screening and primary prevention. Groups such as that defined by physical inactivity alone would be more suitable for population level approaches.

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