• Zhong-Bao Ruan, Hong-Xia Liang, Fei Wang, Ge-Cai Chen, Jun-Guo Zhu, Yin Ren, and Li Zhu.
• Department of Cardiology, Jiangsu Taizhou People's Hospital, Taizhou 225300, China.
• Int. J. Clin. Pract. 2022 Jan 1; 2022: 8521735.

PurposeThis study sought to investigate the predictive factors for atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence in patients after radiofrequency ablation (RFCA) and construct a nomogram prediction model for providing precious information of ablative strategies.MethodsA total of 221 patients with AF who underwent RFCA were enrolled. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression were used to screen the predictors of recurrence. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and the Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curve were drawn to analyze the value of predictors. The nomogram model was further constructed to predict the recurrence of AF in patients after RFCA.ResultsThere were 59 cases of AF recurrence after RFCA. Monocyte count/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (MHR), AF course (COURSE), coronary heart disease (CHD), and AF type (TYPE) were the independent risk factors for predicting AF recurrence after RFCA. Accordingly, a nomogram prediction model based on MHR, COURSE, CHD, and TYPE was constructed with a C-index of 0.818 (95% CI: 0.681∼0.954), while the C-index of verification was 0.802 (95% CI: 0.658∼0.946).ConclusionsPreoperative MHR, COURSE, CHD, and TYPE were independent risk factors for predicting recurrence of AF after RFCA. The nomogram model based on MHR, COURSE, CHD, and TYPE can be used to predict the recurrence of AF after RFCA accurately and individually.Copyright © 2022 Zhong-bao Ruan et al.

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