• Benjamin H Li, Jason S Haukoos, Matthew M Gangidine, Emily Hopkins, Michelle McDaniel, Johnnie E Williams, Jerry L Morgan, Erica Green, Alma R Mireles, Jose Palacios, Jesus H Ramirez, and Katherine M Bakes.
• Department of Emergency Medicine, Denver Health Medical Center, 777 Bannock Street, Mail Code 0108, Denver, CO, 80204, United States of America; Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Colorado School of Medicine, 12401 East 17th Avenue, 7th Floor, Aurora, CO, 80045, United States of America; Office of Education, Denver Health Medical Center, 601 Broadway, 9th Floor, Denver, CO, 80203, United States of America; At-risk Intervention and Mentoring (AIM), Gang Rescue And Support Project (GRASP), Denver Youth Program, 1625 East 35th Avenue, Denver, CO, 80205, United States of America. Electronic address: Benjamin.Li@dhha.org.
• Injury. 2022 Oct 1; 53 (10): 3263-3268.

BackgroundInterpersonal violent injury is a public health crisis, disproportionately affecting young people of color. We aimed to evaluate associations between sociobehavioral predictors and first-time violent injury, and to develop a predictive risk score for violent injury.MethodsWe performed a retrospective case-cohort study of adolescents aged 12-18 years. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate associations between 35 candidate variables and interpersonal first-time violent injury resulting in an emergency department (ED) visit. Multiple imputation was used to account for missing values and a risk score was developed by multiplying regression coefficients by 10 to generate a composite tool to predict initial violent injury (IVI). Discrimination and calibration were assessed using 10-fold cross validation.Results19,210 adolescents were included, 276 (1.4%) as victims of IVI. The final model, the Initial Violent Injury Risk Prediction Tool (IVI-RPT), included: age, fight within the prior year, trouble with the law, and alcohol use. IVI-RPT scores were categorized as: 0-7 (low risk), 8-16 (moderate), and 17-26 (high), and IVI prevalence was 0.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.6%, 0.9%), 2.5% (95% CI: 1.9%, 3.1%), and 5.3% (95% CI: 4.1%, 6.6%), respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.70 (95% CI: 0.66, 0.73), while the slope of the calibration curve was 1.1 (95% CI: 0.9, 1.2).ConclusionsWe developed a promising clinical prediction instrument, the IVI-RPT, that categorizes individuals into risk groups with increasing probabilities of violent injury. External validation of this tool is required prior to clinical practice implementation.Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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