• Jun Chen, Ziwei Mei, Yimin Wang, Xinyang Shou, Rui Zeng, Yijie Chen, and Qiang Liu.
• Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
• Pol. Arch. Med. Wewn. 2023 Jan 24; 133 (1).

IntroductionNomograms of prognosis in patients with a history of cardiac arrest (CA) have been established. However, there are some shortcomings and interferences in their clinical application.ObjectivesOur study aimed at developing a utility nomogram to predict the risk of in‑hospital death in post‑CA patients.Patients And MethodsWe retrospectively extracted data from the MIMIC‑IV database. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression and multivariable logistic regression were used to investigate independent risk factors. A nomogram defined as a prediction model was established for these independent risk factors. The model performance was measured by examining discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]), calibration (calibration curve analysis), and utility (decision curve analysis [DCA]).ResultsA total of 1724 post‑CA patients were enrolled in the study. Of those, 788 survived and 936 died. The incidence of in‑hospital death was 54.3%. In this nomogram, the predictors included age, malignant cancer, bicarbonate, blood urea nitrogen, sodium, heart rate, respiratory rate, temperature, SPO2, norepinephrine prescription, and lactate level. The internally validated nomogram showed good discrimination (AUC 0.801; 95% CI, 0.775-0.835). The calibration curve analysis and DCA confirmed that this prediction model can be clinically useful.ConclusionsWe established a risk prediction model based on the admission characteristics to accurately predict the clinical outcome in post‑CA patients. The nomogram might help with the risk identification and individual clinical interventions.

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