• Preventive medicine · Dec 2023

    Percentiles of predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease risk by sex and age in Brazil and their association with estimated risk of long-term atherosclerotic events.

    • Fernando Yue Cesena, Giuliano Generoso, Itamar de S Santos, Bruce B Duncan, RibeiroAntonio Luiz PALPDepartment of Internal Medicine, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil; Telehealth Center and Cardiology Service, Hospital das Clínicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo H, Luisa Caldeira Brant, Jose Geraldo Mill, Alexandre C Pereira, Marcio Sommer Bittencourt, Raul D Santos, Paulo A Lotufo, and Isabela M Benseñor.
    • Cenocor, Guarulhos, SP, Brazil. Electronic address: cesenaf@gmail.com.
    • Prev Med. 2023 Dec 1; 177: 107755107755.

    ObjectiveExpressing the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in relation to peers may complement the estimation of absolute CVD risk. We aimed to determine 10-year CVD risk percentiles by sex and age in the Brazilian population and evaluate their association with estimated long-term atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) risk.MethodsA cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from the ELSA-Brasil study was conducted in individuals aged 40-74 years without prior ASCVD. Ten-year CVD risk and long-term ASCVD risk were estimated by the WHO risk score and the Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium tool, respectively. Ten-year risk percentiles were determined by ranking the calculated risks within each sex and age group.ResultsTen-year CVD risk versus percentile plots were constructed for each sex and age group using data from 13,364 participants (55% females; median age, 52 [IQR, 46-59] years). Long-term ASCVD risk was calculated in 12,973 (97.1%) participants. Compared to individuals at the <25th risk percentile, those at the ≥75th percentile had a greater risk of being in the highest quartile of long-term risk (ORs [95% CIs] 6.57 [5.18-8.30] in females and 11.59 [8.42-15.96] in males) in regression models adjusted for age, race, education, and 10-year CVD risk. In both sexes, the association between risk percentile and long-term risk weakened after age 50. A tool for calculating 10-year CVD risk and the corresponding percentile is available at https://bit.ly/3CzPUi6.ConclusionsWe established percentiles of predicted 10-year CVD risk by sex and age in the Brazilian population, which independently reflect the estimated long-term ASCVD risk in younger individuals.Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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