• Preventive medicine · Dec 2023

    Long-term trend of future Cancer onset: A model-based prediction of Cancer incidence and onset age by region and gender.

    • Chen Xie, Xiaoting Huang, Dong Lin, Xiaojia Huang, Shen Lin, Shaohong Luo, Xiongwei Xu, and Xiuhua Weng.
    • Department of Pharmacy, the First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350005, China.; Department of Pharmacy, National Regional Medical Center, Binhai Campus of the First Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350212, China.
    • Prev Med. 2023 Dec 1; 177: 107775107775.

    ObjectivesThis study provided estimates of cancer incidence rate and onset age by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions and gender from 2020 to 2040, aiming to clarify the long-term patterns of future cancer onset.MethodBased on the incidence data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2019 study, we constructed the Bayesian age-period-cohort model to calculate the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) of cancers from 2020 to 2040. Using the average annual percentage change (AAPC) to quantify the trends of ASIR and the onset age. In addition, the incidences in 2019 were fixed to distinguish the age onset changes caused by demographic and incidence from 2020 to 2040.ResultsGlobally, two-thirds of cancers have escalating trends of incidence rate, and the proportion of cancer weighted average onset age above 60 years old will grow from 62% to 76% between 2020 and 2040. In five SDI regions, the proportion of weighted average onset age above 60 years old will rise above 10% in the next 20 years and increase sequentially with the rise of the SDI level. Preclude sex-specific cancers, the onset age is younger in men than in women in 2040. Rule out the influence of changing demographics, half of cancer's morbidity has a youth-oriented tendency globally, which is concentrated in hormone-related and digestive tract cancer.ConclusionFrom 2020 to 2040, the incidence and onset age changes demonstrate marked geographic and gender variations in the cancer spectrum. Cancer incidence and onset age are predicted to continuously increase worldwide in the future.Copyright © 2023. Published by Elsevier Inc.

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