• Hongjing Xu, Xiaojun Yang, Ying Lu, and Shiming Wang.
• Department of Gastroenterology, Wuxi Xishan People's Hospital, Wuxi 214000, Jiangsu Province, China.
• Afr Health Sci. 2023 Jun 1; 23 (2): 283289283-289.

BackgroundThe aim of this retrospective study was to predict the post-endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) recurrence risk of early gastric carcinoma (EGC) using a nomogram model, and to provide valuable evidence for preventing the recurrence.MethodsThe patients with EGC receiving ESD between March 2010 and February 2018 were enrolled. They were followed up once every three months after ESD. At the end of follow-up, they were assigned into recurrence and non-recurrence groups. The independent risk factors for post-ESD recurrence were identified using Cox regression analysis. A nomogram prediction model was established, and its predictive efficiency was assessed by plotting receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.ResultsHelicobacter pylori (HP) infection, number of positive lymph nodes >3 and a large amount of intraoperative hemorrhage were risk factors for post-ESD recurrence. According to multivariate Cox regression analysis, HP infection and number of positive lymph nodes >3 were independent predictors. The nomogram model had a good fitting effect, and the area under ROC curve was 0.933 (95% confidence interval: 0.919-0.947), suggesting a high predictive efficiency.ConclusionPositive lymph nodes and HP infection are closely correlated with the recurrence risk after ESD in EGC patients. The established model is a quantitative tool for predicting recurrence to improve the prognosis.© 2023 Xu H et al.

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