• Jinyu Gao, Zhaohua Liu, Yao Zhong, Nannan Li, and Tingting Tang.
• Reproductive Medicine Center, Hunan Provincial Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital, Hu'nan Province, China.
• Afr Health Sci. 2023 Jun 1; 23 (2): 632639632-639.

ObjectiveTo analyse the factors influencing clinical pregnancy outcome of in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (IVF/ICSI) in older women, and to establish a risk prediction model.MethodsA total of 425 patients receiving IVF/ICSI from March 2018 to March 2020 were divided into pregnancy group (n=194) and non-pregnancy group (n=231). The factors affecting the outcomes of IVF/ICSI were explored by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. A nomogram prediction model was constructed.ResultsThe two groups had significantly different age, body mass index, dysmenorrhea, parity, times of full-term births, history of cesarean section, basal follicle stimulating hormone, basal antral follicle count (AFC), number of high-quality embryos, and basal estradiol, luteinizing hormone and endometrial thickness on the day of human chorionic gonadotropin (HCG) administration (P<0.05). Age ≥40 years old, dysmenorrhea, history of cesarean section, basal AFC<9, number of high-quality embryos <4, and endometrial thickness on the day of HCG administration <11 mm led to IVF/ICSI failure. The established model exhibited high calibration and discrimination degrees in predicting the outcome of IVF/ICSI.ConclusionThe risk prediction model for the pregnancy outcome of IVF/ICSI in older women helps evaluate the fertility probability and risk, providing references for formulating reasonable assisted reproduction plans.© 2023 Gao J et al.

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