• Wenyi Tang, Bo Ye, Lina Zhou, and Lingyun Zou.
• Department of Clinical Data Research, Chongqing Emergency Medical Center, Chongqing Key Laboratory of Emergency Medicine, Chongqing University Central Hospital, Chongqing University, Chongqing, China.
• Medicine (Baltimore). 2024 Mar 22; 103 (12): e37498e37498.

AbstractTo reveal the key factors influencing the progression of severe COVID-19 to critical illness and death in the intensive care unit (ICU) and to accurately predict the risk, as well as to validate the efficacy of treatment using traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), thus providing valuable recommendations for the clinical management of patients. A total of 189 patients with COVID-19 in 25 ICUs in Chongqing, China, were enrolled, and 16 eventually died. Statistical models shown that factors influencing the progression of COVID-19 to critical illness include the severity of illness at diagnosis, the mode of respiratory support, and the use of TCM. Risk factors for death include a history of metabolic disease, the use of antiviral drugs and TCM, and invasive endotracheal intubation. The area under curve of the noncollinearity model predicted the risk of progression to critical illness and the risk of death reached 0.847 and 0.876, respectively. The use of TCM is an independent protective factor for the prevention of the progression of severe COVID-19, while uncorrectable hypoxemia and invasive respiratory support are independent risk factors, and antiviral drugs can help reduce mortality. The multifactorial prediction model can assess the risk of critical illness and death in ICU COVID-19 patients, and inform clinicians in choosing the treatment options and medications.Copyright © 2024 the Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.

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