• J R Soc Med · Nov 2024

    Deriving and validating a risk prediction model for long COVID: a population-based, retrospective cohort study in Scotland.

    • Karen Jeffrey, Vicky Hammersley, Rishma Maini, Anna Crawford, Lana Woolford, Ashleigh Batchelor, David Weatherill, Chris White, Tristan Millington, Robin Kerr, Siddharth Basetti, Calum Macdonald, Jennifer K Quint, Steven Kerr, Syed Ahmar Shah, Amanj Kurdi, Colin R Simpson, KatikireddiSrinivasa VittalSVPublic Health Scotland, Glasgow and Edinburgh, UK.MRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK., Igor Rudan, Chris Robertson, Lewis Ritchie, Aziz Sheikh, and Luke Daines.
    • Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH16 4UX, UK.
    • J R Soc Med. 2024 Nov 18: 14107682412978331410768241297833.

    ObjectivesUsing electronic health records, we derived and internally validated a prediction model to estimate risk factors for long COVID and predict individual risk of developing long COVID.DesignPopulation-based, retrospective cohort study.SettingScotland.ParticipantsAdults (≥18 years) with a positive COVID-19 test, registered with a general medical practice between 1 March 2020 and 20 October 2022.Main Outcome MeasuresAdjusted odds ratios (aORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for predictors of long COVID, and patients' predicted probabilities of developing long COVID.ResultsA total of 68,486 (5.6%) patients were identified as having long COVID. Predictors of long COVID were increasing age (aOR: 3.84; 95% CI: 3.66-4.03 and aOR: 3.66; 95% CI: 3.27-4.09 in first and second splines), increasing body mass index (BMI) (aOR: 3.17; 95% CI: 2.78-3.61 and aOR: 3.09; 95% CI: 2.13-4.49 in first and second splines), severe COVID-19 (aOR: 1.78; 95% CI: 1.72-1.84); female sex (aOR: 1.56; 95% CI: 1.53-1.60), deprivation (most versus least deprived quintile, aOR: 1.40; 95% CI: 1.36-1.44), several existing health conditions. Predictors associated with reduced long COVID risk were testing positive while Delta or Omicron variants were dominant, relative to when the Wild-type variant was dominant (aOR: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.81-0.88 and aOR: 0.64; 95% CI: 0.61-0.67, respectively) having received one or two doses of COVID-19 vaccination, relative to unvaccinated (aOR: 0.90; 95% CI: 0.86-0.95 and aOR: 0.96; 95% CI: 0.93-1.00).ConclusionsOlder age, higher BMI, severe COVID-19 infection, female sex, deprivation and comorbidities were predictors of long COVID. Vaccination against COVID-19 and testing positive while Delta or Omicron variants were dominant predicted reduced risk.

      Pubmed     Copy Citation     Plaintext  

      Add institutional full text...

    Notes

     
    Knowledge, pearl, summary or comment to share?
    300 characters remaining
    help        
    You can also include formatting, links, images and footnotes in your notes
    • Simple formatting can be added to notes, such as *italics*, _underline_ or **bold**.
    • Superscript can be denoted by <sup>text</sup> and subscript <sub>text</sub>.
    • Numbered or bulleted lists can be created using either numbered lines 1. 2. 3., hyphens - or asterisks *.
    • Links can be included with: [my link to pubmed](http://pubmed.com)
    • Images can be included with: ![alt text](https://bestmedicaljournal.com/study_graph.jpg "Image Title Text")
    • For footnotes use [^1](This is a footnote.) inline.
    • Or use an inline reference [^1] to refer to a longer footnote elseweher in the document [^1]: This is a long footnote..

    hide…