• Karen Jeffrey, Vicky Hammersley, Rishma Maini, Anna Crawford, Lana Woolford, Ashleigh Batchelor, David Weatherill, Chris White, Tristan Millington, Robin Kerr, Siddharth Basetti, Calum Macdonald, Jennifer K Quint, Steven Kerr, Syed Ahmar Shah, Amanj Kurdi, Colin R Simpson, KatikireddiSrinivasa VittalSVPublic Health Scotland, Glasgow and Edinburgh, UK.MRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK., Igor Rudan, Chris Robertson, Lewis Ritchie, Aziz Sheikh, and Luke Daines.
• Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH16 4UX, UK.
• J R Soc Med. 2024 Nov 18: 14107682412978331410768241297833.

ObjectivesUsing electronic health records, we derived and internally validated a prediction model to estimate risk factors for long COVID and predict individual risk of developing long COVID.DesignPopulation-based, retrospective cohort study.SettingScotland.ParticipantsAdults (≥18 years) with a positive COVID-19 test, registered with a general medical practice between 1 March 2020 and 20 October 2022.Main Outcome MeasuresAdjusted odds ratios (aORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for predictors of long COVID, and patients' predicted probabilities of developing long COVID.ResultsA total of 68,486 (5.6%) patients were identified as having long COVID. Predictors of long COVID were increasing age (aOR: 3.84; 95% CI: 3.66-4.03 and aOR: 3.66; 95% CI: 3.27-4.09 in first and second splines), increasing body mass index (BMI) (aOR: 3.17; 95% CI: 2.78-3.61 and aOR: 3.09; 95% CI: 2.13-4.49 in first and second splines), severe COVID-19 (aOR: 1.78; 95% CI: 1.72-1.84); female sex (aOR: 1.56; 95% CI: 1.53-1.60), deprivation (most versus least deprived quintile, aOR: 1.40; 95% CI: 1.36-1.44), several existing health conditions. Predictors associated with reduced long COVID risk were testing positive while Delta or Omicron variants were dominant, relative to when the Wild-type variant was dominant (aOR: 0.85; 95% CI: 0.81-0.88 and aOR: 0.64; 95% CI: 0.61-0.67, respectively) having received one or two doses of COVID-19 vaccination, relative to unvaccinated (aOR: 0.90; 95% CI: 0.86-0.95 and aOR: 0.96; 95% CI: 0.93-1.00).ConclusionsOlder age, higher BMI, severe COVID-19 infection, female sex, deprivation and comorbidities were predictors of long COVID. Vaccination against COVID-19 and testing positive while Delta or Omicron variants were dominant predicted reduced risk.

5 keywords...

hide…