• Yuying Wu, Yanyan Zhang, Yang Zhao, Xing Zhang, Minqi Gu, Weifeng Huo, Xueru Fu, Xi Li, Botang Guo, Jianxin Li, Xiangfeng Lu, Fulan Hu, Dongsheng Hu, and Ming Zhang.
• Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shenzhen University Medical School, Shenzhen, Guangdong, PR China.
• Prev Med. 2025 Jan 1; 190: 108186108186.

PurposeOur study aimed to identify the trajectory patterns of lipid accumulation product (LAP) and investigate their association with the incident risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in China.MethodsThis study included 37,316 eligible participants, with data collected between1998 and 2021. The LAP trajectory patterns were identified through latent mixture modeling. Logistic regression models were used to examine the association between different LAP trajectory patterns and the incident risk of T2DM.ResultsOver an average period of 12.7 years, 3195 participants developed T2DM. Four LAP trajectory patterns were identified: low stable, moderate slow-increasing, high decreasing, and moderate fast-increasing. After adjusting for demographic and clinical confounders, the odds ratios (ORs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) for T2DM were 1.67 (1.50, 1.86) for the moderate slow-increasing group, 1.63 (1.38, 1.94) for the high decreasing group, and 2.43 (2.07, 2.85) for the moderate fast-increasing group compared with the low stable group. Similar trajectory patterns were found in sex-specific populations as in the general population, while the elevated LAP trajectory pattern was more strongly associated with an increase in the incident risk of T2DM in females.ConclusionIndividuals with moderate fast-increasing LAP trajectory patterns had a 2.4 times higher risk of developing T2DM compared to those with low stable LAP patterns. More attention should be paid to preventing T2DM in people with high levels of LAP, especially females, the elderly, drinkers, and people with a history of diabetes.Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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