• Wei Guo, WanZhong Yang, Rong Ma, Wei Yang, Honglai Zhang, Zemin Wang, JiaWang Fan, and ZhaoHui Ge.
• The First Clinical Medical School of Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, Ningxia, China.
• World Neurosurg. 2024 Nov 26; 194: 123417123417.

ObjectiveTo develop and validate a nomogram predicting the postoperative adding-on phenomenon in Lenke 1/2 adolescent idiopathic scoliosis patients, providing a quantitative tool for therapeutic benefit assessment and personalized risk prediction.MethodsA retrospective analysis was conducted using clinical data from 213 patients. The least absolute shrinkage selection operator was applied to identify the best predictors. Multivariate logistic regression was used to construct a nomogram with a training set (80%), while a validation set (20%) was used for internal validation. The receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis assessed the model's clinical utility.ResultsThe model was constructed using the 4 best predictor variables: the number of vertebrae in the main thoracic curve, apical vertebra translation, last instrumented vertebra rotation, and Risser sign. The model's C-index was 0.932 (95% confidence interval, 0.8858-0.9775). Decision curve analysis indicated a clinically meaningful high-risk threshold between 0 and 1, and the calibration curve demonstrated satisfactory accuracy.ConclusionsThe model proved useful for predicting the occurrence of adding-on in Lenke 1/2 adolescent idiopathic scoliosis patients after surgery.Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

4 keywords...

hide…