• Pradeep Suri, James Rainville, David J Hunter, Ling Li, and Jeffrey N Katz.
• Veterans Affairs Boston Healthcare System, Boston, MA, USA. pradeep.suri@va.gov
• Arch Phys Med Rehabil. 2012 Apr 1; 93 (4): 690-5.

ObjectivesTo determine recurrence rates of lower-extremity radicular pain after nonsurgical treatment of acute symptomatic lumbar disk herniation (LDH), and to identify predictors of recurrence.DesignProspective inception cohort.SettingOutpatient spine clinic.ParticipantsPatients (N=79) reporting resolution of radicular pain after magnetic resonance imaging confirmation of LDH.InterventionsIndividualized nonsurgical treatment tailored to the patient. All patients received education, but other treatments varied depending on the individual.Main Outcome MeasuresResolution of radicular pain was defined as a pain-free period of ≥1 month. Patients who reported resolution of radicular pain within 1 year after seeking care for acute LDH were asked whether pain had recurred at 1 year after seeking care and were also reassessed 1 year after the time of resolution of radicular pain and 2 years after seeking care. Patients reported on recurrence and the date of recurrence, if any. We evaluated the 1-year incidence of recurrence, using Kaplan-Meier survival plots. We examined predictors of recurrence using bivariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. We examined the secondary outcome of back pain recurrence using identical methods.ResultsTwenty-five percent (95% confidence interval [CI], 15-35) of individuals with resolution of radicular pain for at least 1 month reported subsequent recurrence of pain within 1 year after resolution. The only factor independently associated with radicular pain recurrence was the number of months prior to resolution of pain (hazard ratio per month=1.24; 95% CI, 1.13-1.37; P<.001). The 1-year incidence of back pain recurrence was 43% (95% CI, 30-56), and older age decreased the hazard of recurrence.ConclusionsRecurrence of radicular pain is relatively common after nonsurgical treatment of LDH and is predicted by longer time to initial resolution of pain.Copyright © 2012 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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