• Brian R Herts, Erika Schneider, Nancy Obuchowski, Emilio Poggio, Anil Jain, and Mark E Baker.
• Imaging Institute, Cleveland Clinic, 9500 Euclid Ave., Desk Hb6, Cleveland, OH 44195, USA. hertsb@ccf.org
• AJR Am J Roentgenol. 2009 Aug 1; 193 (2): 494-500.

ObjectiveThe objectives of our study were to develop a model to predict the probability of reduced renal function after outpatient contrast-enhanced CT (CECT)--based on patient age, sex, and race and on serum creatinine level before CT or directly based on estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) before CT--and to determine the relationship between patients with changes in creatinine level that characterize contrast-induced nephropathy and patients with reduced GFR after CECT.Materials And MethodsOf 5,187 outpatients who underwent CECT, 963 (18.6%) had serum creatinine levels obtained within 6 months before and 4 days after CECT. The estimated GFR was calculated before and after CT using the four-variable Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equation. Pre-CT serum creatinine level, age, race, sex, and pre-CT estimated GFR were tested using multiple-variable logistic regression models to determine the probability of having an estimated GFR of < 60 and < 45 mL/min/1.73 m(2) after CECT. Two thirds of the patients were used to create and one third to test the models. We also determined discordance between patients who met standard definitions of contrast-induced nephropathy and those with a reduced estimated GFR after CECT.ResultsSignificant (p < 0.002) predictors for a post-CT estimated GFR of < 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) were age, race, sex, pre-CT serum creatinine level, and pre-CT estimated GFR. Sex, serum creatinine level, and pre-CT estimated GFR were significant factors (p < 0.001) for predicting a post-CT estimated GFR of < 45 mL/min/1.73 m(2). The probability is [exp(y) / (1 + exp(y))], where y = 6.21 - (0.10 x pre-CT estimated GFR) for an estimated GFR of < 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2), and y = 3.66 - (0.087 x pre-CT estimated GFR) for an estimated GFR of < 45 mL/min/1.73 m(2). A discrepancy between those who met contrast-induced nephropathy criteria by creatinine changes and those with a post-CT estimated GFR of < 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) was detected in 208 of the 963 patients (21.6%).ConclusionThe probability of a reduced estimated GFR after CECT can be predicted by the pre-CT estimated GFR using the four-variable MDRD equation. Furthermore, standard criteria for contrast-induced nephropathy are poor predictors of poor renal function after CECT. Criteria need to be established for what is an acceptable risk to manage patients undergoing CECT.

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