• Lizu Liu, Muneaki Ishijima, Haruka Kaneko, Ryo Sadatsuki, Shinnosuke Hada, Mayuko Kinoshita, Takako Aoki, Ippei Futami, Anwarjan Yusup, Hitoshi Arita, Jun Shiozawa, Yuji Takazawa, Hiroshi Ikeda, and Kazuo Kaneko.
• a Department of Medicine for Orthopaedics and Motor Organ , Juntendo University Graduate School of Medicine , Tokyo , Japan.
• Mod Rheumatol. 2017 Mar 1; 27 (2): 332-338.

ObjectivesThe aim of this prospective cohort study was to examine whether MRI-detected osteoarthritis (OA)-structural changes at baseline could predict knee OA patients who would undergo total knee arthroplasty (TKA).MethodsIn total, 128 end-stage medial-type knee OA patients were enrolled and followed up for 6 months. MRI using the whole-organ MRI scoring (WORMS) method, radiographic findings, visual analog scale (VAS) for pain and a patient-oriented outcome measure, and the Japanese Knee Osteoarthritis Measure (JKOM) were recorded at baseline. The area under the curve (AUC) was estimated to determine the discriminative value of the prediction models.ResultsWhile 74 patients (57.8%) did not undergo TKA, the remaining 54 patients (42.2%) underwent TKA during this period. The AUCs of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the activities of daily living (ADL) score evaluated by the JKOM ADL score [0.70 (95% CI: 0.60-0.79)] and osteophyte score [0.72 (0.64-0.81)] were 0.70 or greater. The JKOM ADL score (17/40) and the osteophyte score (30/98) showed relative risks (RR) of 2.61 (1.32-5.15) and 3.01 (1.39-6.52) for undergoing TKA, respectively.ConclusionThe osteophyte score detected by MRI, in addition to ADL score, was found to be an important factor in determining whether the patient should undergo TKA.

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