Shock : molecular, cellular, and systemic pathobiological aspects and therapeutic approaches : the official journal the Shock Society, the European Shock Society, the Brazilian Shock Society, the International Federation of Shock Societies
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Randomized Controlled Trial Multicenter Study Clinical Trial
Prospectively validated prediction of organ failure and hypotension in patients with septic shock: the Systemic Mediator Associated Response Test (SMART).
Conventional outcomes research provides only percentage risk categories that are not applicable to individual patients, and it predicts only mortality, utilization of resources and/or broad groupings of multiple organ system dysfunction. The purpose of the present study was to determine whether or not the Systemic Mediator Associated Response Test (SMART) methodology could identify interactions among demographics, physiologic parameters, standard hospital laboratory tests, and circulating cytokine concentrations to predict continuous and dichotomous dependent clinical variables, in advance, in individual patients with septic shock and to integrate these into prospectively validated models. Two hundred forty (240) patients with septic shock who were entered into the placebo arm of a multi-institutional clinical trial were randomly separated into a model building training cohort (n = 154) and a predictive cohort (n = 86), which was used to prospectively validate the prognostic models built upon the training cohort database. ⋯ For hematologic/coagulation models, 37/56 (66%) up to seven days had r > 0.900. Among dichotomous models, ROC AUC > 0.700 was achieved in 30/49 (61%) during the first week. SMART integration of demographics, bedside physiology, hospital laboratory tests, and circulating cytokines predicts organ failure and physiologic function indicators in individual patients with septic shock.