Bmc Med
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A prediction model can be a useful tool to quantify the risk of a patient developing dementia in the next years and take risk-factor-targeted intervention. Numerous dementia prediction models have been developed, but few have been externally validated, likely limiting their clinical uptake. In our previous work, we had limited success in externally validating some of these existing models due to inadequate reporting. As a result, we are compelled to develop and externally validate novel models to predict dementia in the general population across a network of observational databases. We assess regularization methods to obtain parsimonious models that are of lower complexity and easier to implement. ⋯ We developed and externally validated patient-level models to predict dementia. Our results show that although dementia prediction is highly driven by demographic age, adding predictors based on condition diagnoses and drug exposures further improves prediction performance. BAR regularization outperforms L1 regularization to yield the most parsimonious yet still well-performing prediction model for dementia.
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Comparative Study
Comparative analysis of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease burden between ages 20-54 and over 55 years: insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.
To systematically analyze differences in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) burden between young and older adults. ⋯ The ASCVD burden in young individuals may become a growing global health concern, especially in areas with lower socioeconomic development levels that require more effective primary prevention strategies.
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The prevalence of autism in Denmark has been increasing, reaching 1.65% among 10-year-old children, and similar trends are seen elsewhere. Although there are several factors associated with autism, including genetic, environmental, and prenatal factors, the molecular etiology of autism is largely unknown. Here, we use untargeted metabolomics to characterize the neonatal metabolome from dried blood spots collected shortly after birth. ⋯ Cyclo-leucine-proline and 5-AVAB are associated with future diagnosis of autism in Danish neonates, both representing novel early biomarkers for autism. 5-AVAB is potentially modifiable and may influence carnitine homeostasis.
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The increasing incidence of coeliac disease is leading to a growing interest in active search for associated factors, even the intrauterine and early life. The exposome approach to disease encompasses a life course perspective from conception onwards has recently been highlighted. Knowledge of early exposure to gluten immunogenic peptides (GIP) in utero could challenge the chronology of early prenatal tolerance or inflammation, rather than after the infant's solid diet after birth. ⋯ The study shows evidence, for the first time, of the foetal exposure to gluten immunogenic peptides and establishes a positive correlation with maternal gluten intake. The results obtained point to a novel physiological concept as they describe a plausible closed-loop circuit entailing foetal swallowing of GIP contained in AF and its subsequent excretion through the foetal kidneys. The study adds important new information to understanding the coeliac exposome.