Articles: pandemics.
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What will be the global impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19)? Answering this question requires accurate forecasting the spread of confirmed cases as well as analysis of the number of deaths and recoveries. Forecasting, however, requires ample historical data. At the same time, no prediction is certain as the future rarely repeats itself in the same way as the past. ⋯ Assuming that the data used is reliable and that the future will continue to follow the past pattern of the disease, our forecasts suggest a continuing increase in the confirmed COVID-19 cases with sizable associated uncertainty. The risks are far from symmetric as underestimating its spread like a pandemic and not doing enough to contain it is much more severe than overspending and being over careful when it will not be needed. This paper describes the timeline of a live forecasting exercise with massive potential implications for planning and decision making and provides objective forecasts for the confirmed cases of COVID-19.
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Front Public Health · Jan 2020
Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Outbreak: the Need for Epidemic Preparedness.
COVID-19 is not only a global pandemic and public health crisis; it has also severely affected the global economy and financial markets. Significant reductions in income, a rise in unemployment, and disruptions in the transportation, service, and manufacturing industries are among the consequences of the disease mitigation measures that have been implemented in many countries. It has become clear that most governments in the world underestimated the risks of rapid COVID-19 spread and were mostly reactive in their crisis response. As disease outbreaks are not likely to disappear in the near future, proactive international actions are required to not only save lives but also protect economic prosperity.
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Frontiers in neurology · Jan 2020
Negative Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Admissions for Intracranial Hemorrhage.
Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has seriously impacted healthcare systems worldwide. Admissions for various non-COVID-19 emergencies have significantly decreased. We sought to determine the impact of COVID-19 on admissions for intracranial hemorrhage to a German University Hospital emergency department. ⋯ Likewise, admission rates for traumatic intracranial hemorrhage decreased significantly by 53.7% [RR = 0.463, p < 0.001, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.358-0.599]. Conclusion: The decrease of spontaneous intracranial hemorrhages may be a consequence of underutilization of the healthcare system whereas decreasing rates of traumatic intracranial hemorrhage admissions may predominantly reflect a decrease in true incidence rates due to lockdown measures with restricted mobility. Raising patient awareness to seek emergency healthcare for acute neurological deficits during lockdown measures is important to ensure appropriate emergency care for patients with intracranial hemorrhage.
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The COVID-19 pandemic is changing clinical practice in neurology, after the governments decided the introduction of social distancing and interruption of medical non-emergency services in many countries. Teleneurology is an effective tool for the remote evaluation of patients but its adoption for frontotemporal lobar dementia (FTD) is in a preliminary stage. ⋯ The study was conducted in Italy, one of the countries hit particularly hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, with interruption of all non-emergency medical services. Our study indicates that telemedicine is a valid tool to triage patients with FTD to increase practice outreach and efficiency.
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This study is to investigate the risk prediction of severe or critical events of COVID-19 in older adults in China and provide the evidence to support the management of older adults with COVID-19. ⋯ D-dimer and CD4 cells either by themselves or in combination have demonstrated predictive value in risk stratification as well as established the prognosis of severe or critical illness in older adults with COVID-19.