• Joakim Dillner, K Miriam Elfström, and Iacopo Baussano.
• Center for cervical cancer prevention, Karolinska University Hospital and Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden. Electronic address: Joakim.Dillner@ki.se.
• Prev Med. 2021 Dec 1; 153: 106827106827.

AbstractHuman Papillomavirus (HPV) infection is a necessary risk factor for cervical cancer. If HPV is no longer spread, no new cervical cancer precursors will occur. The timepoint for control of the HPV infection will therefore be a rate-limiting step for cervical cancer elimination. We used a validated dynamic HPV transmission model to estimate the age-specific HPV16 incidences and basic reproductive numbers (R0) with input data from Sweden. If R0 is below 1, a fade-out resulting in extinction is expected. Above age 35, we found an R0 of 0.4. Thus, when younger birth cohorts no longer transmit HPV to women >35 years of age, we predict that the HPV infection will no longer be sustained among the older women. Given adequate resources, campaigns to eliminate HPV that are designed based on the R0 measurements followed by screening to detect and treat pre-existing cervical cancer precursors could achieve accelerated cervical cancer elimination.Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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